讲座内容：

主讲人：冯绪

时   间：2026年4月29日（周三）10:30-12:30

线   下：思源东楼 305

主持人：曹志刚 教授

摘要：We construct a firm-level measure of real estate exposure for Chinese listed firms that captures both direct holdings and indirect linkages to the property sector. Firms with greater exposure exhibit significantly larger increases in net borrowing and investment during real estate upturns, while direct real estate holdings alone have no effect once broader exposure is accounted for. The credit expansion operates through improved cash-flow prospects and relaxed financing constraints, rather than through real estate collateral values. Exploiting a regulatory tightening as a quasi-experiment, we establish causality by showing that firms with higher ex ante exposure experience sharp declines in financing, cash flow, investment, and employment. Our findings identify a distinct cash-flow channel — a non-collateral mechanism through which real estate cycles propagate via cash-flow based lending.